China is desperate for our canola, and Canada has more leverage than we think.
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Canola is Canada’s most valuable crop, generating billions in exports each year. Roughly 90 per cent of what we grow is sold abroad, and China has long been one of the top buyers. That’s why Beijing’s decision to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal and a 75.8 per cent tariff on canola seed in mid-August has hit farmers so hard.
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Canada doesn’t have to give away the farm to secure a canola deal with China.
China’s ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, says the solution is simple: if Canada drops the EV tariff, China will remove its agricultural tariffs. But Canada may not need to go that far.
China cannot easily replace millions of tonnes of high-quality Canadian seed. Imports from India and Australia don’t match the volume or quality, and Chinese futures markets are already showing strain. If farmers can weather the chill, Canada may have more leverage than expected.
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The stakes are high. Canada’s auto sector still supports about 125,000 direct jobs, and losing more ground would further weaken our manufacturing base.
There are risks, however. Canadians can’t ignore China’s human rights abuses, from the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang to the crackdown in Hong Kong. And trading dependence on Washington for reliance on Beijing is hardly a cure-all. Any deal must be negotiated from a position of strength, with safeguards to protect Canadian workers and sovereignty.
Which brings us back to canola. China needs it. We’re willing to sell it. But we don’t have to—nor should we—give away the farm.
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I don’t agree with the tariffs. Canada does have an auto industry, but as far as Electric Vehicles or batteries are concerned, there’s not much to protect. We don’t have a proper competitive product for EVs, and Canada doesn’t have the infrastructure investments needed to make EVs competitive with ICE vehicles. We’re a smaller market with a huge hinterland and hard winters, and that poses some natural challenges for EVs.
Also, we’re saddled with the Americans, and even they don’t appear to be pursuing EVs or battery technologies at the highest levels with maximum effort. What are these tariffs for, exactly?
Even if Chinese companies were allowed to sell to the Canadian markets, they’d likely be shipped in as final products, and we’d hope they’re not watered down.
Canada’s relationship with the US is not good at the moment, and the Americans are emphasizing onshoring and US manufacturing. Canada will have to balance what it wants with these real considerations. We may have the right value proposition for local manufacture, but that depends on how far out we look into the horizon.
So with all of this in mind, the Vauxhall Advance wants to ask Canola farmers to willingly offer their business as sacrifice to some tariffs that don’t even look like they’re accomplishing much? If anything, China’s negotiations amount to a gesture of please reconsider while we offset your product with other agricultural products from the Belt and Road initiative.
I think that’s a difficult message for the canola farmers to swallow. Everyone sees what happened to the American soy farmers. They’re done. Even after negotiations between the US and China led to a truce, the resulting supply glut and the rise of new competitors in South America will leave a lasting impression.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-soybean-glut-could-defeat-us-export-hopes-after-trade-thaw-2025-11-12/
Our auto industry relies on the US market, you should never rely on the US market so we shouldn’t protect our auto industry.