The 338Canada / Qc125 model has thus far covered 18 general elections in Canada. In total, 2,039 electoral districts were projected.
So far, the model has correctly identified the winner in 1,821 districts, a success rate of 89.3%.
Among the 218 remaining districts, 132 of the winners (6.5%) obtained a share of the vote that was within the projection’s margin of error (moe). Only 86 districts (4.2%) were complete misses.
On this site, electoral districts are labelled according to the odds of winning by the projected favourite party. If a party’s odds of winning are at or above 99.9% (formerly 99.5%), the district is labelled as safe. Between 90% and 99.9%, the district is likely. Between 70% ad 90%, we use the label leaning. Finally, if no party has odds above 70%, the district will be labelled as a toss up.
Here below is the complete breakdown of correct and incorrect winners from safe, likely, leaning and toss up districts:
How accurate is 338?
https://338canada.com/record.htm
It’s a bad attempt at copying Nate Silver’s work, but lacks any statistical quality or funding. It’s something to read but in my opinion, total BS.
First election or what?
yes?
Cool! Welcome!