I still can’t believe they kept him in charge of the party
Let’s set the record straight about Carney.
Carney is FISICALLY conservative, he is not SOCIALLY Conservative.
There is a very big difference.
He is NOT a ‘Conservative in Liberal clothing’, he is a fiscally conservative Liberal.
Wait - that is what the most successful Progressive Conservative leaders were. Haven’t seen one of them since the Reform party shenanigans.
The whole conservative party is just a distraction at this point.
The Overton Window has been shifted so far to the right that no one notices that everything the Liberals are doing is what the Conservatives would have done by now.
Conservatives have no new ideas, so I don’t think he is going anywhere. The party needs to reform itself.
The party needs to reform itself.
The party needs to un-reform itself.
Not that old-school Tories were awesome, but the party became so much worse when they merged with the dregs of Manning’s reform party.
X to doubt.
Sure, another leader in another time would be cooked. He’s the beginning of MAGA coming up here and hollowing out the conservative party, though. Something something shoot someone on fifth avenue and still be voted for.
Now, I suppose I can’t see inside the party and don’t know who’s coming to the convention, but I’m certain there’s a sizeable faction that sees this all as evidence they need to double down more, so I’d say odds are in his favour.
He’s the continuation of the Reform party. The only difference between now and 20 years ago is the voters.
I hope you’re right, but what’s going on in the US isn’t normal or with modern precedent, and I’m pretty sure it’s same thing.
Although, Reform was before my time, so I don’t have a super great sense of what that was like.
The only difference between now and 20 years ago is the voters.
I mean, that’s always true isn’t it? You could even make a similar observation about history’s non-democracies. The culture changes, people who remember whatever thing age out, and that changes what’s politically possible.
Although, Reform was before my time, so I don’t have a super great sense of what that was like.
Republicans, Conservatives were Democrats.
that’s always true isn’t it
Immigrants will mostly be right of the status quo because there’s more reason to leave a right wing society than a left wing.
You can see that in the last election as boomers overwhelmingly voted Liberal while people under 34 voted Conservative.
https://schoolofcities.github.io/gta-immigration/rightward-minorities
You also see this reflected in policy as the further right you go the more immigration the party calls for.
Changing demographics in the voter base explains why the Reform Party is seeing success now.
Republicans, Conservatives were Democrats.
And the Liberals were Conservatives? This was back when everyone was balancing the budget, so that adds. The Republicans of the day were respectable establishment types as well, very different from the fascist nonsense that it’s become.
The rest I kind of need to argue with a bit.
Immigrants will mostly be right of the status quo because there’s more reason to leave a right wing society than a left wing.
More-or-less true, although I’d tie both back to undereducation and underdevelopment. But that’s not new.
You can see that in the last election as boomers overwhelmingly voted Liberal while people under 34 voted Conservative.
Young people disproportionately voted NDP or Green, which ate into the Liberal share. Although they were all fairly split, as the chart shows.
You also see this reflected in policy as the further right you go the more immigration the party calls for.
Except this is almost never true anymore. Even PP has tried to raise a stink over immigrants, despite being in a country that’s 98% immigrant and unlike the US kind of knows it.
And the Liberals were Conservatives? This was back when everyone was balancing the budget, so that adds. The Republicans of the day were respectable establishment types as well, very different from the fascist nonsense that it’s become.
Left of the US like Canada has always been.
although I’d tie both back to undereducation and underdevelopment.
What do you think breeds conservatism?
Except this is almost never true anymore. Even PP has tried to raise a stink over immigrants, despite being in a country that’s 98% immigrant and unlike the US kind of knows it.
You just weren’t paying attention to the NDP or Cons in the last election then.
He complained about immigration from the Liberals but also boasted that he would have more.
During the last election he didn’t come down on immigration so much, that’s true. It’s been one of his lines of attack since, though.
It’s looking an awful lot like Jeneroux was also going to cross the floor until the party blackmailed him into quitting instead.
Anyway, I personally hope Pollievre somehow survives the leadership review. Another failed election with him at the helm might finally split that cobbled together party right down the middle.
National Observer has a left-center bias, so this is more ‘hope’ than ‘prediction’.
59 per cent said Poilievre sounded too much like Trump.
Which is exactly why he was almost apopleptic about getting the federal election done BEFORE January when Trump took office. Before the theoretical shit show of a trump presidency became the actual shit show of a trump presidency.
People looking at what was happening in the us, and then looking at Poppinfresh; our own little mini-trump, and promptly told him to fuck off to the tune of losing a 30 point lead.
I’m amazed he wasnt canned on the spot as leader.
36 per cent describe him as likeable.
Wait… what? Are these people who have been following what he says and does?
30% of Canadians will ALWAYS vote for and unfailingly support the leading conservative party, no matter who the candidates are, no matter what the issues are, regardless of absolutely anything else. They vote in every election like it is a religious duty. Read this as ~6% of the reachable population.
Yeah; but voting for the party and considering Poilievre a likeable person are two VERY different things.
No! Perhaps that’s what you’re not seeing. Not in their minds it is not! Loyalty is important to the right-wing authoritarian psychology in a way that it is not to you and I. Not to say that it isn’t important, but it’s not so important that we’re willing to ignore everything we know for the sake of loyalty. They are going to answer every question on the basis of, “What answer reflects best on my side?” And I think that on a freaky but real level of their mind they will totally believe it.
You seem ultra-focused on “these people will always vote conservative.”
That has absolutely nothing to do with my original question or my point.
The conservative mindset says “support the group no matter how unlikable the representative.”
That doesn’t automatically lead to “oh, Poilievre? That likeable guy?”
This possibly suggests the poll was badly framed to trigger a “likeable is the most loyal reply “ response, but it doesn’t guarantee it. I want actual information. Because if that’s all it is, the question framing was flawed. If it isn’t… something else is going on.
Every country needs to watch out for that 36% it seems.
Remember, half the population has a two digit IQ.
That still doesn’t make him likeable.
They themselves are contemptuous people and like someone who shares their contemptuous views.
They might not be.
And they have the same voting rights.
He’s definitely rankled. But I dont think his ‘goose is cooked’. Yet.
If Jeneroux had crossed the floor I think it would be another story but he’s still swearing allegiance to Poilievre even those his reasons for resigning “in the spring” are shrouded in mystery. And I’m 100% sure that there are very strong messages going out from Poilievre’s office to every Conservative MP to test their allegiance.
The tricky part for the Conservatives that would have said “Id rather die than be a Liberal” under Trudeau is that Carney is basically a Conservative in a red suit. He dropped the consumer carbon tax, he’s open to expanding oil and gas, he’s dropped almost all of his climate change rhetoric (a massive shift), he’s presented a tax break for us peons, he wants to cut the public service bloat, he’s demanding a 15% reduction in dept budgets, he’s NOT focusing on identity issues and he’s not a drama guy who cant make a sincere speech - I mean there’s a lot there for a Conservative to like.
Given that, if some Liberal ‘operative’ comes along and says “Mr Carney just wants you to know that if you join us, there’s a plum job waiting for you with the extended pay and benefits and we could probably find a slice of the 150 billion budget to spend in your riding - whaddya want? A new recreational center with your name on it?” Tempting indeed.
The oven has finished preheating for Poilievre’s goose.
Carney is indeed out-conservativing the Conservatives, but that’s happened before with the Chrétien government. So I think this is within the reasonable band of Liberal left-right political wobbling. Poilievre is kind of analogous to the 90’s Reform party of Canada, the wing of social conservatism seems to line up with Poilievre’s Maple MAGA Conservatives. The Liberals moving right is not an irreversible ratchet effect that I think some people here fear, it will swing back at some point in many years from now. Of course, harmful policies absolutely should be pushed back against, but it’s not an inevitability or if a push to stop one fails, it’s not over forever.
If he does lose his position as leader, he’ll still maintain his position as MP, right? I’d be shocked if he abandoned his step-stool constituents.
He’d have to quit. He already couldn’t get elected in his riding and then lose his position as leader? That’s when you retire. At 46. With full pension. And become a media commentator. Probably for some far-right media somewhere in Alberta.
He’d have an easy shot as Premier
Maybe the new party leader could come from elsewhere and request a by-election in PP’s riding where he would obviously step aside to let them take over.
Right?
He can’t complain since he has influenced government policy for the worse.
